ALK fails to close above 50-day moving average
Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
ALK finished the week 3.36% higher at 66.11 after losing $0.39 (-0.59%) today, underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Trading $0.64 higher after the open, Alaska Air was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ALK as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.50 (2.26%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.49. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for ALK.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top and the Bearish High-Wave Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on January 28th, ALK actually gained 2.06% on the following trading day.
After spiking up to 66.96 during the day, the stock found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 66.81. After having been unable to move above 66.77 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 66.96.
The share shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
With prices trading close to this year's high at 68.79, upside momentum could speed up should ALK be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bearish Intraday Reversal" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Alaska Air. Out of 393 times, ALK closed higher 50.38% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.03% with an average market move of 1.34%.