AL closes within prior day's range
Air Lease Corporation Class A (AL) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AL finished the week 5.01% higher at 45.29 after edging lower $0.01 (-0.02%) today, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of today's earnings report. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AL as at Feb 14, 2020):
AL is set to report earnings after today's market close. For the upcoming report, analysts expect the company to have earned $1.37 per share. The company's last earnings report was released on Nov. 7, 2019, when Air Lease Corporation Class A reported earnings of $1.34 per share topping market expectations by 3.9%.
Friday's trading range has been $1.18 (2.56%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.05. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for AL.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on February 7th, AL actually gained 1.04% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 44.59 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 45.60 (R1).
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 44.40 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Stock Earning Report based market condition "Trading Day before Earnings Report" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Air Lease. Out of 29 times, AL closed higher 72.41% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after nine trading days, showing a win rate of 41.38% with an average market move of 0.40%.