AJG breaks back above 20-day moving average
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AJG ended the month 3.4% higher at 97.49 after gaining $1.82 (1.9%) today on low volume, slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AJG as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $2.82 (2.95%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.89. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for AJG. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 93.87 and 98.08 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Arthur J. managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 97.45. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 97.92 (R1), the share closed below it after spiking up to 98.08 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on June 4th, AJG actually gained 2.29% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move lower than 94.97 in the prior session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 95.26.
While still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 94.97 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "White Candle" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Arthur J.. Out of 616 times, AJG closed higher 54.55% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.88% with an average market move of 0.68%.