AIV closes lower for the 3rd day in a row
Apartment Investment & Mgmt (AIV) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, AIV finished the week -3.84% lower at 41.85 after losing $0.28 (-0.66%) today on high volume, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Today's close at 41.85 marks the lowest recorded closing price since July 30th. Closing below Thursday's low at 42.08, Apartment Investment confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.35 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AIV as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $0.96 (2.27%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.72. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for AIV.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Black Candle and the Three Black Crows which are both known as bearish patterns.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 41.71 (S1). Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 42.55 (R1), the share closed below it after spiking up to 42.69 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on October 5th, AIV actually gained 1.45% on the following trading day.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day though might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 43.73.
Although still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Trading close to August's low at 41.28 we might see further downside momentum if potential sell stops at the level get activated.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close below the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Apartment Investment. Out of 93 times, AIV closed higher 55.91% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.37% with an average market move of 1.33%.