AIR.PA breaks below 50-day moving average for the first time since December 13, 2019
Airbus SE (AIR.PA) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, AIR.PA ended the week -5.06% lower at 129.86 after losing €2.94 (-2.21%) today on high volume. Today's close at 129.86 marks the lowest recorded closing price since December 16, 2019. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 130.76, the stock confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to €1.00 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AIR.PA as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been €4.06 (3.04%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of €2.71. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for AIR.PA.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The market closed below the 50-day moving average at 132.90 for the first time since December 13, 2019.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since December 3, 2019, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This could either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices might head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 135.74 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices. The last time prices broke out below the lower Bollinger Band on December 2, 2019, AIR.PA lost -4.41% on the following trading day.
Although Airbus is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close below the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Airbus. Out of 120 times, AIR.PA closed higher 56.67% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 65.83% with an average market move of 2.72%.