AIMC breaks below key technical support level
Altra Industrial Motion Corp. (AIMC) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 14, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AIMC ended the week 4.03% higher at 35.60 after losing $0.86 (-2.36%) today on high volume, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.16%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AIMC as at Jun 14, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $1.00 (2.76%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.05. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for AIMC.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving higher in the prior session, the market closed lower but above the previous day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on January 3rd, AIMC actually gained 5.25% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 35.68 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 35.27 in the prior session, the stock found buyers again around the same price level today at 35.33.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 33.80.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 36.59 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 34.57 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Harami Candle" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Altra Industrial. Out of 50 times, AIMC closed higher 58.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.00% with an average market move of 2.82%.