AIG declines to lowest close since May 6, 2019
American International Group Inc. (AIG) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, AIG ended the week -9.32% lower at 48.48 after tanking $2.45 (-4.81%) today on high volume, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%). Today's close at 48.48 marks the lowest recorded closing price since May 6, 2019. Trading $0.80 higher after the open, the share was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on January 29th, AIG actually gained 1.89% on the following trading day. Ending with a weak close near the low of the day sets a bearish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AIG as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.37 (4.75%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.22. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for AIG.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 50.57 (R1), American International closed below it after spiking up to 50.66 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels significance going forward.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since January 27th, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This could either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices might head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 51.77 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Gap Down" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for American International. Out of 108 times, AIG closed higher 52.78% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.11% with an average market move of 0.96%.