AGIO stuck within tight trading range
Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) Technical Analysis Report for May 15, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AGIO finished Wednesday at 47.35 losing $0.48 (-1.0%), strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.58%). Trading $0.64 higher after the open, the stock was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on May 2nd, AGIO actually gained 6.62% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AGIO as at May 15, 2019):
Wednesday's trading range has been $1.55 (3.27%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.66. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for AGIO. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 46.31 and 49.15 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Southern Doji which is known as bullish pattern and one neutral pattern, the Doji.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 46.31 (S1). The market found buyers again today around 46.49 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 46.31 in the previous session and at 46.55 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 46.31 where further sell stops could get activated. With prices trading close to this year's low at 44.37, downside momentum might accelerate should Agios Pharmaceuticals break out to new lows for the year.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Southern Doji" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Agios Pharmaceuticals. Out of 36 times, AGIO closed lower 55.56% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after three trading days, showing a win rate of 61.11% with an average market move of -0.34%.