AFL drops to lowest close since July 25th


AFLAC Inc (AFL) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018

Highlights

AFL falls to lowest close since July 25th
AFL closes lower for the 3rd day in a row
AFL breaks below Thursday's low

Overview

Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, AFL finished the week -5.27% lower at 44.05 after losing $0.44 (-0.99%) today on high volume, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Today's close at 44.05 marks the lowest recorded closing price since July 25th. Closing below Thursday's low at 44.29, the share confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.78 below it intraday.

Daily Candlestick Chart (AFL as at Oct 12, 2018):

Daily technical analysis candlestick chart for AFLAC Inc (AFL) as at Oct 12, 2018

Friday's trading range has been $1.55 (3.45%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.70. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for AFL.

One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.

Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 43.45 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 44.77 (R1).

With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day while might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 46.91.

The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.

Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed below last periods low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for AFLAC Inc. Out of 546 times, AFL closed higher 56.96% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.16% with an average market move of 1.03%.


Market Conditions for AFL as at Oct 12, 2018

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