AES stuck within tight trading range
The AES Corporation (AES) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AES ended the week 2.1% higher at 20.93 after gaining $0.10 (0.48%) today, slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AES as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.15 (0.72%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.29. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for AES. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 20.69 and 21.01 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Short Candle and the White Candle which are both known as bullish patterns and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern. The last time a Bearish Hikkake Pattern showed up on January 22nd, AES actually gained 0.78% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 21.01 (R1). After having been unable to move above 20.96 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 20.97.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 21.01 where further buy stops could get activated.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for The AES. Out of 605 times, AES closed higher 49.42% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.06% with an average market move of 0.39%.