AEE still stuck within tight trading range
Ameren Corporation (AEE) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AEE finished the month 14.04% higher at 80.24 after gaining $0.69 (0.87%) today on low volume, slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Trading up to $0.74 lower after the open, Ameren managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on July 23rd, AEE actually lost -1.24% on the following trading day. Closing above Thursday's high at 79.92, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $0.37 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AEE as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.41 (1.77%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.60. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for AEE. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 78.48 and 80.49 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar.
After trading down to 78.88 earlier during the day, the share bounced off the key technical support level at 79.18 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels importance as support going forward. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 81.25 (R1). After having been unable to move lower than 79.03 in the prior session, the stock found buyers again around the same price level today at 78.88.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 80.49 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 78.48 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Ameren. Out of 482 times, AEE closed higher 61.20% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.51% with an average market move of 0.66%.