AEE pops to highest close since June 10th
Ameren Corporation (AEE) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 06, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 6th day in a row, AEE finished Monday at 73.34 gaining $0.11 (0.15%), significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.59%). Today's close at 73.34 marks the highest recorded closing price since June 10th. Trading $0.86 higher after the open, the stock was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on June 10th, AEE lost -4.03% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AEE as at Jul 06, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been $2.02 (2.74%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.19. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for AEE.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top and the Bearish High-Wave Candle which are both known as bearish patterns.
After trading down to 72.46 earlier during the day, the share bounced off the key technical support level at 72.61 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward.
Although the market is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish High-Wave Candle" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Ameren. Out of 34 times, AEE closed higher 61.76% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.82% with an average market move of 0.16%.