AEE closes lower for the 3rd day in a row
Ameren Corp (AEE) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, AEE finished the week -2.0% lower at 63.80 after losing $0.24 (-0.37%) today, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Today's close at 63.80 marks the lowest recorded closing price since October 3rd. Closing below Thursday's low at 63.87, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.78 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AEE as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $0.98 (1.53%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.13. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for AEE.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Takuri Line which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Spinning Top. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on September 18th, AEE lost -1.77% on the following trading day.
After trading down to 63.09 earlier during the day, Ameren Corp bounced off the key technical support level at 63.27 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward. The share broke below the 50-day moving average at 64.05 today.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 62.87 where further sell stops could get activated. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test September's close-by low at 62.06.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "3 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Ameren Corp. Out of 137 times, AEE closed higher 53.28% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 64.23% with an average market move of 0.76%.