ACGL pushes through Wednesday's high
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, ACGL finished Thursday at 29.67 surging $3.95 (15.36%), strongly outperforming the S&P 500 (6.24%). This is the biggest single-day gain ever recorded for Arch Capital. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Wednesday's high at 26.41, the share confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $3.66 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ACGL as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $4.52 (17.25%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.42. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for ACGL.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
After trading down to 25.55 earlier during the day, the stock bounced off the key technical support level at 25.95 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels significance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on March 20th, ACGL actually lost -10.44% on the following trading day. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 30.52 (R1).
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 30.52 where further buy stops could get triggered.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Arch Capital. Out of 469 times, ACGL closed higher 55.65% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.54% with an average market move of 0.74%.