AAL closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AAL finished the month 24.48% higher at 13.07 after losing $0.25 (-1.88%) today, strongly underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (1.96%). Trading $0.38 higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on June 11th, AAL actually gained 16.41% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AAL as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.60 (4.58%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.67. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for AAL. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 12.02 and 13.90 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Southern Doji which is known as bullish pattern and one neutral pattern, the Doji.
After having been unable to move above 13.51 in the prior session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 13.48.
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 13.51 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 12.02 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Doji" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for American Airlines. Out of 125 times, AAL closed higher 52.80% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.60% with an average market move of 2.17%.