AAL breaks back below 200-day moving average
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, AAL ended the week 2.89% higher at 29.20 after losing $0.89 (-2.96%) today on low volume, strongly underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (0.29%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 29.73, American Airlines confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.59 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AAL as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.13 (3.77%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.07. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for AAL.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 28.46 (S1). The market closed back below the 200-day moving average at 29.28. After having been unable to move above 30.40 in the previous session, the stock ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 30.27. The last time this happened on February 3rd, AAL actually gained 4.68% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 200" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for American Airlines. Out of 28 times, AAL closed lower 57.14% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 67.86% with an average market move of -1.77%.