AA breaks below Wednesday's low
Alcoa Corporation (AA) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, AA finished Thursday at 6.84 losing $0.25 (-3.53%), strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (6.24%). Closing below Wednesday's low at 7.01, the share confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.28 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AA as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.66 (9.08%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.99. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for AA.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Bearish Short Candle showed up on March 20th, AA actually gained 3.47% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed below last periods low" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Alcoa. Out of 389 times, AA closed lower 52.19% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.44% with an average market move of -0.26%.