VIX breaks below Monday's low
S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, VIX ended the month 10.61% higher at 30.43 after losing $1.35 (-4.25%) today. Closing below Monday's low at 31.78, the VIX confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $2.22 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (VIX as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $3.38 (10.39%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $4.62. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for VIX.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The index closed below the 20-day moving average at 31.48 for the first time since June 10th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on March 30th, VIX lost -6.20% on the following trading day.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
As prices are trading close to June's low at 23.54, downside momentum might accelerate should the stock index mark new lows for the month.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for S&P 500 VIX. Out of 330 times, VIX closed lower 57.88% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred.