VIX breaks below Thursday's low
S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, VIX finished the week -14.92% lower at 18.19 after losing $1.31 (-6.72%) today. Today's close at 18.19 marks the lowest recorded closing price since December 3, 2018. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 19.29, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $1.17 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (VIX as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $2.04 (10.37%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $3.53. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for VIX.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 16.09 (S1). The stock index closed below the 100-day moving average at 18.67 for the first time since October 3, 2018. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on September 18, 2018, VIX lost -8.13% on the following trading day.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Further selling could move prices lower should the market test December's nearby low at 15.94.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 100" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for S&P 500 VIX. Out of 106 times, VIX closed lower 61.32% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred.