SPX closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SPX ended the week 0.19% higher at 3483.81 after edging higher $0.47 (0.01%) today. Trading $22.26 higher after the open, the index was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on September 16th, SPX lost -0.84% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SPX as at Oct 16, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $35.31 (1.01%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $47.78. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for SPX.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 3440.89 where further sell stops could get activated. With prices trading close to this year's high at 3588.11, upside momentum might speed up should the S&P be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for S&P 500. Out of 445 times, SPX closed higher 58.43% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 64.49% with an average market move of 0.80%.
With four out of the other six Major World Indices closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are DAX gaining 1.62% and FTSE closing 1.49% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been NKY closing -0.41% lower and NDX losing -0.39%. Read more