SPX misses to close above 100-day moving average
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 09, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SPX finished Wednesday at 2919.40 gaining $26.34 (0.91%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SPX as at Oct 09, 2019):
Wednesday's trading range has been $21.91 (0.75%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $29.86. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for SPX.
After moving lower in the previous session, S&P 500 managed to close higher but below the prior day's open, forming a bullish Harami Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 2891.85 (S1). After spiking up to 2929.32 during the day, the stock index found resistance at the 100-day moving average at 2928.82. The last time this happened on May 30th, SPX lost -1.32% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move above 2925.47 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 2929.32.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 2966.37.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 2892.66 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed above the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for S&P 500. Out of 73 times, SPX closed higher 53.42% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 67.12% with an average market move of 1.22%.
With four out of the other six Major World Indices closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are NDX gaining 1.13% and DAX closing 1.04% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been HSI closing -0.81% lower and NKY losing -0.61%. Read more