SPX closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 14, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SPX ended Thursday at 2808.48 losing $2.44 (-0.09%). Trading $4.62 higher after the open, S&P 500 was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SPX as at Mar 14, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been $11.54 (0.41%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $20.50. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for SPX.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving higher in the previous session, the index closed lower but above the prior day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on February 11th, SPX actually gained 1.29% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 2821.24 (R1).
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 2821.24 where further buy stops could get activated.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Harami Candle" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for S&P 500. Out of 116 times, SPX closed higher 58.62% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 66.38% with an average market move of 0.55%.
With four out of the other six Major World Indices closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are FTSE gaining 0.37% and HSI closing 0.15% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been NDX closing -0.19% lower and NKY losing -0.02%. Read more