SPX closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SPX ended the week 2.54% higher at 2596.26 after edging lower $0.38 (-0.01%) today. Trading up to $10.71 lower after the open, the S&P managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SPX as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $18.87 (0.73%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $55.80. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for SPX. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 2562.02 and 2597.82 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar.
The market ran into sellers again today around 2596.27 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 2597.82 in the prior session and at 2595.32 two days ago. The last time this happened on August 14, 2018, SPX lost -0.76% on the following trading day.
While S&P 500 is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 2597.82 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 2562.02 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous two Highs" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for S&P 500. Out of 127 times, SPX closed higher 60.63% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 66.14% with an average market move of 0.22%.
With four out of the other six Major World Indices closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are FTSE losing -0.36% and DAX closing -0.31% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been NKY closing 0.97% higher and HSI gaining 0.55%. Read more