NYA pushes through Thursday's high
NYSE Composite Index (NYA) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 6th day in a row, NYA ended the week 2.73% higher at 11848.01 after edging higher $8.70 (0.07%) today. Today's close at 11848.01 marks the highest recorded closing price since December 13, 2018. Trading up to $44.77 lower after the open, NYSE Composite managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing above Thursday's high at 11843.60, the index confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $7.95 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NYA as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $89.57 (0.76%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $215.00. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for NYA.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 11852.83 (R1). After having been unable to move above 11843.60 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 11851.55. The last time this happened on January 2nd, NYA lost -1.70% on the following trading day.
While the stock index is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 11701.81 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bullish Intraday Reversal" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for NYSE Composite. Out of 418 times, NYA closed higher 54.78% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.05% with an average market move of 0.35%.