NSEI closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
NIFTY 50 Index (NSEI) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, NSEI finished the month 7.53% higher at 10302.10 after edging lower INR10.30 (-0.1%) today. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NSEI as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been INR133.70 (1.29%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of INR199.02. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NSEI.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Black Candle showed up on June 24th, NSEI lost -0.16% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 10176.20 (S1).
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 10409.85 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 10223.60 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for NIFTY 50. Out of 616 times, NSEI closed higher 54.87% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.74% with an average market move of 0.44%.