NSEI enters Golden Cross for the first time since November 15, 2018
NIFTY 50 Index (NSEI) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 15, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 5th day in a row, NSEI finished the week 3.55% higher at 11426.85 after gaining INR83.60 (0.74%) today. Today's close at 11426.85 marks the highest recorded closing price since September 14, 2018. Closing above Thursday's high at 11383.45, the Nifty confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to INR103.55 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NSEI as at Mar 15, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been INR116.20 (1.02%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of INR103.64. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for NSEI.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term. With its 50-day moving average crossing above its 200-day moving average, the index has entered a so-called "Golden Cross" for the first time since November 15, 2018. Showing increasing upward momentum in the short and medium-term the "Golden Cross" is known to indicate a potential bull market on the horizon. When the last "Golden Cross" happened on February 17, 2017, NSEI gained 0.65% on the following trading day.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Golden Cross" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for NIFTY 50. Out of 5 times, NSEI closed higher 60.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after five trading days, showing a win rate of 60.00% with an average market move of -0.20%.