NKY runs into sellers again around 23506.45
Nikkei 225 Index (NKY) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NKY ended Wednesday at 23475.53 edging higher ¥20.64 (0.09%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NKY as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been ¥109.02 (0.47%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of ¥198.04. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NKY. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 23351.35 and 23582.21 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Last Engulfing Top Pattern.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 23376.13 (S1). After having been unable to move above 23477.86 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 23506.45. The last time this happened on September 7th, NKY actually gained 0.80% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 23582.21 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 23351.35 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Nikkei 225. Out of 428 times, NKY closed higher 54.44% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.64% with an average market move of 0.55%.
With four out of the other six Major World Indices closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NDX losing -1.67% and SPX closing -0.46% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been DAX closing 0.29% higher and DJIA gaining 0.13%. Read more