NDX runs into sellers again around 9634.75
Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NDX finished the week 2.37% higher at 9623.58 after gaining $27.88 (0.29%) today ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Today's close at 9623.58 marks the highest recorded closing price ever. Trading up to $30.80 lower after the open, the index managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on February 6th, NDX actually lost -0.47% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NDX as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $51.67 (0.54%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $102.49. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for NDX. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 9532.74 and 9636.41 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Hanging Man.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 9636.41 (R1). After having been unable to move above 9636.41 in the previous session, Nasdaq ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 9634.75.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 9636.41 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 9532.74 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Nasdaq 100. Out of 514 times, NDX closed higher 56.81% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 64.98% with an average market move of 0.87%.
With four out of the other six Major World Indices closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NKY losing -0.59% and FTSE closing -0.58% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been HSI closing 0.31% higher and SPX gaining 0.18%. Read more