NDX runs into sellers again around 7717.94
Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 09, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NDX ended Wednesday at 7690.53 gaining $86.26 (1.13%). Trading up to $23.18 lower after the open, Nasdaq 100 managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NDX as at Oct 09, 2019):
Wednesday's trading range has been $62.46 (0.81%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $99.08. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for NDX.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
Nasdaq managed to close back above the 100-day moving average at 7671.42. After spiking up to 7717.94 during the day, the stock index found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 7708.20. After having been unable to move above 7707.17 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 7717.94. The last time this happened on October 3rd, NDX actually gained 1.51% on the following trading day.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 7784.79 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 7603.76 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 50" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Nasdaq 100. Out of 23 times, NDX closed higher 69.57% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.87% with an average market move of 0.34%.
With four out of the other six Major World Indices closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are DAX gaining 1.04% and SPX closing 0.91% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been HSI closing -0.81% lower and NKY losing -0.61%. Read more