NDX closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 10, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 5th day in a row, NDX finished Thursday at 6620.94 gaining $20.25 (0.31%). Today's close at 6620.94 marks the highest recorded closing price since December 13, 2018. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NDX as at Jan 10, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been $107.57 (1.64%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $173.77. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NDX. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 6457.00 and 6631.06 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Short Candle and the White Candle which are both known as bullish patterns and one bearish pattern, the Last Engulfing Top Pattern.
After trading down to 6517.54 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 6534.33 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels significance as support going forward. After having been unable to move above 6631.06 in the prior session, the index ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 6625.11. The last time this happened on January 2nd, NDX lost -3.36% on the following trading day.
Although Nasdaq is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 6631.06 where further buy stops might get activated.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "5 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Nasdaq 100. Out of 57 times, NDX closed higher 59.65% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 68.42% with an average market move of 0.63%.
With five out of the other six Major World Indices closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are FTSE gaining 0.53% and DJIA closing 0.51% higher. On the flipside the worst performer has been NKY closing -1.29% lower. Read more