JKSE closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
IDX Composite Index (JKSE) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
JKSE finished the month 3.19% higher at 4905.39 after edging higher Rp3.57 (0.07%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JKSE as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been Rp45.72 (0.93%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of Rp95.84. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for JKSE. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 4862.04 and 4941.14 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Despite a weak opening the stock index managed to close above the previous day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on June 24th, JKSE actually lost -1.37% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 4862.04 (S1). After spiking up to 4939.84 during the day, the index found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 4929.79.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 4977.65 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 4862.04 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 20" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for IDX Composite. Out of 24 times, JKSE closed higher 75.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 66.67% with an average market move of 1.99%.