JKSE unable to break through key resistance level
IDX Composite Index (JKSE) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, JKSE ended the week -2.21% lower at 5866.94 after losing Rp5.01 (-0.09%) today. Today's close at 5866.94 marks the lowest recorded closing price since May 17, 2019. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JKSE as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been Rp46.60 (0.8%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of Rp56.60. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for JKSE.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 5877.20 (R1), the index closed below it after spiking up to 5890.03 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on January 29th, JKSE lost -2.83% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
2019's low at 5767.40 is within reach and we could see further downside momentum should the stock index break out beyond.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Spinning Top" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for IDX Composite. Out of 134 times, JKSE closed higher 56.72% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.43% with an average market move of 0.47%.