FTSE misses to close above 100-day moving average
FTSE 100 Index (FTSE) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, FTSE ended the week -2.12% lower at 6159.30 after gaining £12.20 (0.2%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FTSE as at Jun 26, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been £114.99 (1.87%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of £132.39. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for FTSE.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 6151.60 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. The last time this happened on Tuesday, FTSE actually lost -3.11% on the following trading day. After spiking up to 6262.13 during the day, the market found resistance at the 100-day moving average at 6180.07.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 6029.30 where further sell stops could get activated. As prices are trading close to June's low at 5952.40, downside momentum might accelerate should FTSE 100 mark new lows for the month.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 100" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for FTSE 100. Out of 28 times, FTSE closed lower 53.57% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.14% with an average market move of -0.32%.
With five out of the other five Major European Indices closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are BEL20 losing -1.56% and DAX closing -0.73% lower. None of the markets managed to end the day in the green. Read more