FTSE closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
FTSE 100 Index (FTSE) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 04, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
FTSE finished Thursday at 7603.58 edging lower £5.72 (-0.08%). Trading £13.26 higher after the open, the index was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FTSE as at Jul 04, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been £21.25 (0.28%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of £59.43. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for FTSE.
After having been unable to move above 7621.00 in the prior session, FTSE 100 ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 7622.58. The last time this happened on June 28th, FTSE actually gained 0.97% on the following trading day.
With another close above the upper Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong upward momentum in the short-term. A drop back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day though could signal a potential change in momentum that might lead to a correction back down towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 7428.83.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for FTSE 100. Out of 532 times, FTSE closed higher 50.38% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.71% with an average market move of 0.55%.
With five out of the other five Major European Indices closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are BEL20 gaining 0.45% and TECDAX closing 0.12% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more