DAX breaks below 20-day moving average for the first time since June 6th
DAX Performance-Index (DAX) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 5th day in a row, DAX finished Thursday at 12332.12 losing €41.29 (-0.33%). Closing below Wednesday's low at 12356.80, the stock index confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to €49.46 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (DAX as at Jul 11, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been €110.59 (0.89%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of €123.60. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for DAX.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The market closed below the 20-day moving average at 12374.22 for the first time since June 6th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on May 20th, DAX actually gained 0.85% on the following trading day.
The index shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "5 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for DAX. Out of 25 times, DAX closed higher 56.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 72.00% with an average market move of 1.36%.
With five out of the other five Major European Indices closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are TECDAX losing -0.91% and BEL20 closing -0.52% lower. None of the markets managed to end the day in the green. Read more