ASX closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 15, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
ASX finished the week -0.08% lower at 6175.20 after edging lower $4.40 (-0.07%) today. Trading $17.80 higher after the open, ASX 200 was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, ASX lost -0.22% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ASX as at Mar 15, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $26.20 (0.42%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $44.27. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for ASX.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 6175.70 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward.
Although the stock index is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bearish Intraday Reversal" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for ASX 200. Out of 270 times, ASX closed higher 57.78% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.22% with an average market move of 0.67%.