ZARJPY closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
South African Rand/Japanese Yen (ZARJPY) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
ZARJPY ended Thursday at 6.33 losing 8 pips (-1.25%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ZARJPY as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 21 pips (3.28%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 27 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for ZARJPY. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 6.15 and 6.48 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 6.16 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 6.48 (R1). After having been unable to move lower than 6.28 in the previous session, the FX pair found buyers again around the same price level today at 6.25. The last time this happened on March 19th, ZARJPY actually lost -0.63% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 6.48 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 6.15 where further sell stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 6.12, downside momentum could accelerate should the market break out to new lows for the year.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bearish for ZAR/JPY. Out of 855 times, ZARJPY closed lower 50.99% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.74% with an average market move of -0.38%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 2.72% and NZDUSD closing 1.88% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -1.42%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPHKD surging 2.72% and GBPZAR closing 2.65% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -4.12% and USDNOK closing -3.12% lower. Read more