ZAREUR breaks back above 20-day moving average
South African Rand/Euro (ZAREUR) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
ZAREUR finished the week 2.15% higher at 0.0619 after gaining 2 pips (0.32%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ZAREUR as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 6 pips (0.97%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 8 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for ZAREUR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.0614 and 0.0622 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Tweezer Top which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Last Engulfing Top Pattern. The last time a Last Engulfing Top Pattern showed up on January 24th, ZAREUR lost -1.43% on the following trading day.
The pair managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 0.0617. The FX pair ran into sellers again today around 0.0622 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 0.0622 in the previous session and at 0.0622 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.0614 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Break through SMA 20" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for ZAR/EUR. Out of 147 times, ZAREUR closed higher 50.34% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.50% with an average market move of 0.17%.