USDTRY finds buyers around 7.4683 for the third day in a row
US Dollar/Turkish Lira (USDTRY) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, USDTRY ended Wednesday at 7.4997 edging higher 22 pips (0.03%). Today's close at 7.4997 marks the highest recorded closing price ever. Trading up to 290 pips lower after the open, the market managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDTRY as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been 640 pips (0.85%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 839 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for USDTRY. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 7.4639 and 7.5323 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. Additionally, five candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Gravestone Doji and the Northern Doji which are both known as bearish patterns and three neutral patterns, the Doji, the Long-Legged Doji and the Rickshaw-Man. The last time a Gravestone Doji showed up on August 21st, USDTRY actually gained 1.05% on the following trading day.
USD/TRY found buyers again today around 7.4683 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 7.4731 in the prior session and at 7.4639 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 7.4141 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Gravestone Doji" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/TRY. Out of 42 times, USDTRY closed higher 69.05% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 64.29% with an average market move of 0.69%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.61% and NZDUSD closing 0.27% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDJPY closing -0.47% lower and EURUSD losing -0.25%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPPLN surging 0.81% and ZARJPY closing 0.78% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURZAR tanking -1.42% and CHFZAR closing -1.28% lower. Read more