USDTRY closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
US Dollar/Turkish Lira (USDTRY) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, USDTRY finished the month 0.41% higher at 6.8535 after losing 14 pips (-0.02%) today. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDTRY as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 219 pips (0.32%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 540 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for USDTRY. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 6.8282 and 6.8797 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on June 19th, USDTRY lost -0.09% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 6.8724 (R1).
USD/TRY shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 6.8797 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 6.8298 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/TRY. Out of 779 times, USDTRY closed higher 50.32% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.97% with an average market move of 0.60%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more