USDTRY closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
US Dollar/Turkish Lira (USDTRY) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, USDTRY finished Thursday at 6.3972 losing 201 pips (-0.31%). Trading 885 pips higher after the open, the currency was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDTRY as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 1263 pips (1.97%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 1106 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for USDTRY.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 6.4597 (R1), the pair closed below it after spiking up to 6.5058 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward. The market found buyers again today around 6.3795 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 6.3803 in the prior session and at 6.3907 two days ago. The last time this happened on March 6th, USDTRY gained 0.84% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/TRY. Out of 522 times, USDTRY closed higher 51.72% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.09% with an average market move of 0.53%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 2.72% and NZDUSD closing 1.88% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -1.42%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPHKD surging 2.72% and GBPZAR closing 2.65% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -4.12% and USDNOK closing -3.12% lower. Read more