USDTRY closes within prior day's range
US Dollar/Turkish Lira (USDTRY) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDTRY ended the week 0.64% higher at 6.0564 after gaining 150 pips (0.25%) today on low volume. Today's close at 6.0564 marks the highest recorded closing price since May 27, 2019. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDTRY as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 296 pips (0.49%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 336 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDTRY.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the White Candle which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Last Engulfing Top Pattern.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 6.0511 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. The last time this happened on January 29th, USDTRY gained 0.26% on the following trading day. The currency ran into sellers again today around 6.0685 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 6.0669 in the prior session and at 6.0663 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous two Highs" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/TRY. Out of 173 times, USDTRY closed higher 56.07% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.27% with an average market move of 0.87%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDCAD losing -0.12% and EURUSD closing -0.08% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.28% higher and GBPUSD gaining 0.02%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDSEK surging 0.51% and EURSEK closing 0.43% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURHUF tanking -0.65% and USDHUF closing -0.58% lower. Read more