USDTRY stuck within tight trading range
US Dollar/Turkish Lira (USDTRY) Technical Analysis Report for Aug 15, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDTRY finished Thursday at 5.5668 losing 462 pips (-0.82%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDTRY as at Aug 15, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been 708 pips (1.26%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 762 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDTRY. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 5.5467 and 5.6361 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle. The last time a Bullish Hikkake Pattern showed up on July 17th, USDTRY actually lost -1.17% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 5.5146 (S1). USD/TRY closed back below the 200-day moving average at 5.5678.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 5.6361 where further buy stops could get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Black Candle" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/TRY. Out of 508 times, USDTRY closed higher 53.35% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.50% with an average market move of 0.54%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are AUDUSD gaining 0.41% and USDCHF closing 0.33% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been EURUSD closing -0.26% lower and USDCAD losing -0.05%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been ZARJPY surging 1.16% and TRYJPY closing 0.9% higher. The worst performers of the day have been CHFZAR tanking -1.23% and EURZAR closing -1.17% lower. Read more