USDTRY stuck within tight trading range
US Dollar/Turkish Lira (USDTRY) Technical Analysis Report for May 17, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, USDTRY finished the week 1.21% higher at 6.0550 after gaining 86 pips (0.14%) today. Closing above Thursday's high at 6.0527, USD/TRY confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 441 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDTRY as at May 17, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been 600 pips (0.99%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 866 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for USDTRY. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 5.9884 and 6.0968 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top which is known as bullish pattern and two bearish patterns, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern and the Shooting Star. The last time a Bullish Spinning Top showed up on May 9th, USDTRY actually lost -3.41% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 5.9815 (S1).
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
As prices are trading close to May's low at 5.9368, downside momentum could accelerate should the market mark new lows for the month.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Shooting Star" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/TRY. Out of 69 times, USDTRY closed lower 53.62% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after four trading days, showing a win rate of 55.07% with an average market move of -0.27%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.62% and AUDUSD closing -0.35% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDJPY closing 0.2% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.1%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDZAR surging 0.95% and CHFZAR closing 0.85% higher. The worst performers of the day have been ZARJPY tanking -0.78% and GBPCAD closing -0.62% lower. Read more