USDTHB breaks below 200-day moving average for the first time since July 6th
US Dollar/Thai Baht (USDTHB) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 6th day in a row, USDTHB finished the month 1.1% higher at 31.256500 after losing 107500 pips (-0.34%) today. Today's close at 31.256500 marks the lowest recorded closing price since July 9th. Closing below Thursday's low at 31.324500, the currency confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 166500 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDTHB as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 231500 pips (0.74%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 204925 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDTHB.
After trading down to 31.158000 earlier during the day, the FX pair bounced off the key technical support level at 31.245500 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels significance as support going forward. The forex pair closed below the 200-day moving average at 31.270792 for the first time since July 6th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on June 18th, USDTHB lost -0.26% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/THB. Out of 52 times, USDTHB closed lower 65.38% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.85% with an average market move of -0.05%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NZDUSD losing -1.04% and AUDUSD closing -0.72% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDJPY closing 1.12% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.48%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDZAR surging 1.87% and GBPZAR closing 1.79% higher. The worst performers of the day have been NZDCAD tanking -1.15% and NZDHKD closing -1.05% lower. Read more