USDSEK closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
US Dollar/Swedish Krona (USDSEK) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, USDSEK finished the month -1.13% lower at 9.3244 after edging lower 62 pips (-0.07%) today. Trading 560 pips higher after the open, USD/SEK was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDSEK as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 1067 pips (1.14%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 1252 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably lower than usual for USDSEK. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 9.2539 and 9.3882 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top and the Bearish High-Wave Candle which are both known as bearish patterns.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 9.2738 (S1). The forex pair was sold again around 9.3882 after having seen highs at 9.3841, 9.3799 and 9.3845 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 9.2738 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 9.1307, downside momentum might speed up should the currency break out to new lows for the year. As prices are trading close to June's high at 9.4855, upside momentum could accelerate should the pair mark new highs for the month.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish High-Wave Candle" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/SEK. Out of 34 times, USDSEK closed lower 64.71% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.94% with an average market move of -0.39%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more