USDSEK soars 0.51% closing 490 pips higher
US Dollar/Swedish Krona (USDSEK) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, USDSEK ended the week 0.66% higher at 9.7234 after surging 490 pips (0.51%) today. This is the biggest single-day gain in over two weeks. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day gain on February 6th, USDSEK gained 0.37% on the following trading day. Today's close at 9.7234 marks the highest recorded closing price since November 13, 2019. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Thursday's high at 9.6890, the currency confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to 426 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDSEK as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 613 pips (0.63%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 565 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for USDSEK.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 9.7506 (R1).
Crossing above the upper Bollinger Band for the first time since January 27th, prices have shown unusually strong upward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential buying climax after which prices could head back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 9.6091 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even higher prices.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close above the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for USD/SEK. Out of 163 times, USDSEK closed lower 52.76% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 57.67% with an average market move of -0.06%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDCAD losing -0.12% and EURUSD closing -0.08% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.28% higher and GBPUSD gaining 0.02%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been EURSEK surging 0.43% and CADCHF closing 0.41% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURHUF tanking -0.65% and USDHUF closing -0.58% lower. Read more