USDPLN misses to close above 50-day moving average
US Dollar/Polish Zloty (USDPLN) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, USDPLN ended Wednesday at 3.7666 gaining 48 pips (0.13%). Trading up to 171 pips lower after the open, the market managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing above Tuesday's high at 3.7631, the FX pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 114 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDPLN as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been 319 pips (0.85%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 417 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDPLN. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 3.7289 and 3.7759 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top. The last time a Bullish Spinning Top showed up on September 10th, USDPLN actually lost -0.38% on the following trading day.
After spiking up to 3.7745 during the day, the currency found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 3.7715.
Although USD/PLN is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 3.7918 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 3.7289 where further sell stops could get activated. As prices are trading close to September's high at 3.7936, upside momentum might speed up should the pair mark new highs for the month.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed above last periods high" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for USD/PLN. Out of 567 times, USDPLN closed lower 52.91% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.61% and NZDUSD closing 0.27% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDJPY closing -0.47% lower and EURUSD losing -0.25%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPPLN surging 0.81% and ZARJPY closing 0.78% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURZAR tanking -1.42% and CHFZAR closing -1.28% lower. Read more