USDPLN closes above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure
US Dollar/Polish Zloty (USDPLN) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDPLN ended the month -5.31% lower at 3.7480 after gaining 255 pips (0.69%) today. Trading up to 261 pips lower after the open, the forex pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on July 16th, USDPLN actually lost -0.55% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDPLN as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 588 pips (1.58%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 427 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for USDPLN.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 3.7816 (R1).
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 3.7816 where further buy stops could get activated.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bullish Intraday Reversal" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for USD/PLN. Out of 413 times, USDPLN closed lower 51.57% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 54.48% with an average market move of -0.07%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NZDUSD losing -1.04% and AUDUSD closing -0.72% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDJPY closing 1.12% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.48%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDZAR surging 1.87% and GBPZAR closing 1.79% higher. The worst performers of the day have been NZDCAD tanking -1.15% and NZDHKD closing -1.05% lower. Read more