USDPLN breaks below Friday's low
US Dollar/Polish Zloty (USDPLN) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 01, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 6th day in a row, USDPLN ended Monday at 3.9513 tanking 544 pips (-1.36%) on high volume. Today's close at 3.9513 marks the lowest recorded closing price since March 13th. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Friday's low at 3.9880, the currency confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 372 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDPLN as at Jun 01, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been 572 pips (1.43%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 431 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for USDPLN.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on May 26th, USDPLN lost -0.49% on the following trading day.
The forex pair closed below the 200-day moving average at 3.9628 for the first time since March 11th.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day although might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 4.1403.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "6 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/PLN. Out of 12 times, USDPLN closed lower 58.33% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after three trading days, showing a win rate of 58.33% with an average market move of -0.12%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are AUDUSD gaining 1.93% and NZDUSD closing 1.43% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -0.21%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been AUDHKD surging 1.93% and AUDCHF closing 1.9% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURAUD tanking -1.65% and EURCAD closing -1.16% lower. Read more